Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
29 active3 stale32 sources
16
/ 100
▼ FallingYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
FIRMS: 286 thermal detections at military sites (48h) · GPSJAM: 7 HIGH zones (48h) · 2 elevated security indicators · 31 active disinformation campaigns · 840 FIMI narrative signals detected this week
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 46 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH31 MOD14 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalKursk Khalino✈12Levashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Millerovo airbase✈28Morozovsk airbase✈20Nizhny Tagil UVZOlenya airbase✈15Osipovichi storagePogonovo trainingPskov 76th VDVRostov Southern HQSaki Novofedorovka✈10Sevastopol navalSeveromorsk NorthFleetShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeVoronezh Malshevo✈12Yelnya garrison
14 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
5 activeDetected War Panic across osint_perplexity, rss, ru_legislation, telegram. 23 signals from 13 actors including 15min.lt, BALTNEWS, BNN (Baltic). Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 13 outlets; baseline: 4±4 actors/day…
Detected War Panic across rss, telegram. 20 signals from 12 actors including 15min.lt, BALTNEWS, BNN (Baltic). Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 12 outlets; baseline: 4±4 actors/day, today: 12 (>2σ).
Detected Russophobia across osint_perplexity, rss, telegram. 48 signals from 16 actors including 15min.lt, Alexey Stefanov (Правфонд), BALTNEWS. Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 16 outlets; baseline: 6±5 ac…
Detected Isolation across rss, telegram. 33 signals from 14 actors including 15min.lt, Alexey Stefanov (Правфонд), BALTNEWS. Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 14 outlets; baseline: 6±4 actors/day, today: 14 …
Detected War Panic across gdelt, rss, telegram. 22 signals from 10 actors including 15min.lt, BALTNEWS, Delfi LT RUS. Evidence: Cross-outlet amplification: 10 outlets; baseline: 3±3 actors/day, today: 10 (>2σ).
Influence Network
Trace how influence actors, financial flows, and political networks connect across the Baltic region. Every connection backed by court records, registries, or investigative journalism.
Russia's Shadow FleetACTIVE INVESTIGATION
AI-powered OSINT mapping of 598 EU-sanctioned tankers, Estonian bunkering networks, and the Estlink 2 sabotage chain. 39 entities, 49 verified connections — updated continuously.
834detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
12HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
1293ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
12 near cables
2071aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
--Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
UNAVAILABLE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Baltic Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland
Baltic Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events relevant to Estonia and the Baltics2 advisory10 normal
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity