Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
15 active17 stale32 sources
12
/ 100
▼ FallingGREEN?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
NATO: NATO conducted major amphibious exercise off Germany’s Baltic coast. · 1 active disinformation campaign
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH20 MOD3 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalLevashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Osipovichi storagePskov 76th VDVShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeYelnya garrison
3 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
5 activeSystematic doubt-casting and downplaying of airspace violationHIGH
hostile framing14 signals2026-03-21
Coordinated amplification of Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric to portray alliance as…MEDIUM
hostile framing15 signals2026-03-21nato_provocation
Trusted media amplifies Russia-as-culture-weapon narrative across 3 Baltic…MEDIUM
injection cascade9 signals2026-03-21
Fabricated quote to portray US-Europe disunityHIGH
hostile framing10 signals2026-03-21
Manufactured outrage: tass_ru/rt_russian creates 4-article reaction chain over…MEDIUM
outrage chain4 signals2026-03-21
Omission of official apology to control narrativeRESOLVED
hostile framing14 signals2026-03-21
Systematic omission of public discontent regarding livestock cullingRESOLVED
hostile framing11 signals2026-03-21
Influence Network
Trace how influence actors, financial flows, and political networks connect across the Baltic region. Every connection backed by court records, registries, or investigative journalism.
Russia's Shadow FleetACTIVE INVESTIGATION
AI-powered OSINT mapping of 598 EU-sanctioned tankers, Estonian bunkering networks, and the Estlink 2 sabotage chain. 39 entities, 49 verified connections — updated continuously.
875detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
2HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
622ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
3067aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
--Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
UNAVAILABLE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Baltic Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for the Baltic states
Baltic Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events across the Baltic states2 advisory10 normal
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity