Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
12 active20 stale32 sources
14
/ 100
→ StableGREEN?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
1 active disinformation campaign
HEIGHTENED
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
1 HIGH20 MOD3 LOW
Alabino trainingBaltiysk navalBaranovichi Belarus✈15Brest garrisonBryansk stagingDonskoye missilesGrodno garrisonGusev garrisonKaliningrad Chkalovsk✈12Kamenka 138th MRBKlintsy stagingKronstadt navalLevashovo airbase✈12Luga 6th CAAMachulishchy Belarus✈4Osipovichi storagePskov 76th VDVShaykovka airbase✈12Smolensk airbase✈12Strugi KrasnyeYelnya garrison
3 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Detected Operations · 30 days?Coordinated information operations detected by analyzing cross-platform signal patterns.
10 recentNarrative burst: 42 signals across multiple outlets
Narrative: Isolation / Victimhood
Cross-outlet amplification detected across 9 actors
Narrative: Kallas
FIMI keyword patterns detected in 4 signals
Narrative: Russophobia / Persecution
FIMI keyword patterns detected in 4 signals
Narrative: Isolation / Victimhood
Cross-outlet amplification detected across 6 actors
Narrative: Ekre Helme
KOOS Anti-Estonia YouTube BlitzRESOLVED
Single-actor burst: 14 signals in rapid succession
Narrative: KOOS YouTube
Narrative burst: 12 signals across multiple outlets
Narrative: Aid = Theft
Narrative burst: 26 signals across multiple outlets
Narrative: Isolation / Victimhood
Narrative burst: 34 signals across multiple outlets
Narrative: Russophobia / Persecution
Influence Network
Trace how influence actors, financial flows, and political networks connect across the Baltic region. Every connection backed by court records, registries, or investigative journalism.
Russia's Shadow FleetACTIVE INVESTIGATION
AI-powered OSINT mapping of 598 EU-sanctioned tankers, Estonian bunkering networks, and the Estlink 2 sabotage chain. 39 entities, 49 verified connections — updated continuously.
875detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
6HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
522ships tracked?Ships transmit AIS signals with position and identity.
Baltic Maritime · 24h
Vessel activity in the Baltic Sea, including sanctions-evading tankers
3394aircraft?ADS-B transponder data for military and government aircraft.
Military Flights · 24h
Russian military and government aircraft tracked near the Baltics
--Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
UNAVAILABLE
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Baltic Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for the Baltic states
Baltic Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events across the Baltic states12 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ |
|---|
Threat Index History
How the overall threat score has changed — higher = more concerning
Signal Volume
How many data points we collected per day, by source type
RSSTelegramAISGPS JamOther
Indicator Breakdown
Daily count of security indicators by severity