Understand the numbers — read the full methodology
How the Threat Index is calculated, what each data source means, satellite analysis methodology, and formal mathematical definitions you can verify independently.
Data Sources
17 active15 stale32 sources
16
/ 100
→ StableYELLOW?Composite Threat Index (0–100)
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
🟢 0–19 Normal
🟡 20–44 Elevated
🟠 45–69 High
🔴 70–100 Critical
ROUTINE
Military Activity · 24 sites
AI analysis of satellite imagery at Russian/Belarusian military bases. HIGH = unusual movement detected.
8 MOD16 LOW
Baltiysk naval✈0Brest garrison✈0Gusev garrison✈0Kamenka 138th MRB✈0Kronstadt naval✈0Luga 6th CAA✈0Ostrov airbase✈0Smolensk airbase✈0
16 LOW activity sites
● HIGH · ● MOD · ● LOW · ✈ aircraft · ⊕ satellite+OSINT fusedFull map →
Influence Monitor?Tracks how media content gets distorted as it flows between ecosystems. Detects when downstream channels add claims, certainty, or panic framing not in the original source. Validated against 18,000 EUvsDisinfo cases.
10 fabrications · 7d147 narratives this week originated in known disinfo sources and spread to other ecosystems
2.8M total audience · 5 certainty escalations · 3 emotional amplifications
949detections?NASA's VIIRS satellite detects heat signatures at known military sites.
FIRMS Thermal · 7 days
Satellite heat detections near Russian military bases
0HIGH zones?GPS jamming disrupts satellite navigation. Russia uses electronic warfare to jam GPS across the Baltic region.
GPS Jamming
Regions where GPS navigation is being disrupted by electronic warfare
25flagged vessels?Distinct AIS vessels flagged in the last 7 days: near monitored infrastructure, shadow-fleet tanker tags, or naval tags.
Baltic Maritime · 7d
Potentially relevant maritime activity near Baltic infrastructure
2196 total tracked25 near cables
91military aircraft?Distinct ADS-B aircraft tagged as military in the last 7 days.
Flight Tracking · 7d
Military and state-relevant aircraft observed near the Baltics
1470 total tracked91 military tagged
3Kp index?The Kp index measures geomagnetic disturbance (0-9). When Kp >= 5, solar storms can disrupt GPS.
Space Weather
Geomagnetic activity — high Kp mimics GPS jamming effects
LOW
0outages?Internet outages detected via BGP routing and active probing (IODA).
Baltic Internet
Internet connectivity monitoring for the Baltic states
Baltic Power Grid?Grid balance = production minus consumption.
Real-time electricity production vs consumption. Deficit = importing power
-207MW deficit
Prod: 646 MWCons: 853 MW
Travel Advisories?Foreign government travel advisories for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
What US, UK, Germany, Finland, and Sweden say about Baltic travel safety
🏳Normal
Active IndicatorsToday's security events across the Baltic states3 advisory7 normal
| Category | Indicator | Finding | Conf | ↗ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYBRID | Composite Threat Index | Baltic CTI is 16.3/100 (YELLOW); security 0.0, fimi 9.4, hybrid 6.3, economic 0.6. | ●●● | ||
| HYBRID | Social Channel Monitoring | Social monitoring partially stale: telegram latest 2026-03-24 08:31 UTC, youtube latest 2026-03-23 15:00 UTC. | ●○○ | ↗ | |
| HYBRID | GPS Interference Monitoring | Latest upstream GPSJam snapshot is from 2026-03-22 12:00 UTC; source is delayed, so current hybrid assessment does not escalate from older jamming data. | ●●○ | ↗ |